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Towards the end of the 1980s, economic, political, and structural problems began to become pronounced in the Soviet Union. Among these issues that significantly impacted the system, economic stagnation, productivity problems in production, and structural challenges faced by the central administration became particularly prominent. The policies implemented by Mikhail Gorbachev, who came to power in 1985, weakened the central authority and strengthened independence demands in the Soviet Republics, rather than solving the existing problems. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan declared their independence and took their places as independent states in the international system.
Following their independence, both countries entered a process aimed first at ensuring political stability, then executing their economic transformations, and forming their posture in foreign policy. Despite their shared historical, cultural, and linguistic ties, Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan relations remained at a limited level for many years. However, from the second half of the 2010s onwards particularly with the reform process that started in Uzbekistan in 2016 and the rise of regional self-confidence after Azerbaijan’s Karabakh victory cooperation between the two countries began to develop and spread into different areas.
Relations between the two countries entered the path of institutionalization through the signing of the declaration on deepening the strategic partnership in 2022, the establishment of the Supreme Interstate Council in 2023, and the signing of the Treaty on Allied Relations in 2024. The Treaty on Eternal Friendship, signed during the meeting between President Ilham Aliyev and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Tashkent on August 23, 2026, represents the current stage of the process that has developed over these years.
The content of the agreement states that bilateral relations are built on eternal friendship, mutual trust, and strategic alliance. In addition to setting the goal to increase the trade volume between the two countries to 1 billion dollars by 2030, the same agreement includes preparations that form the ground for establishing sister cities relations and developing specific plans for cooperation in similar fields.
The main question at this point is whether the agreement in question will remain limited to merely strengthening bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. It should also be evaluated whether the agreement can establish a regional model that could elevate economic and strategic cooperation within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) to a higher institutional level.
Focusing on these questions, this study examines the potential that the agreement holds for the Turkic World. In this context, it addresses the institutional innovations brought by the agreement, the search for balance emerging from the perspective of Türkiye and other actors, as well as its potential limitations.
Between the Caucasus and Central Asia: The OTS Equation of the Two Countries
To evaluate the possibility of relations between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan transforming into a regional cooperation model, it is first necessary to reveal the position of bilateral relations within the Organization’s general cooperation structure by examining the activities, shared interest areas, and existing cooperation mechanisms of both countries within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).
Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan hold importance as two member countries that stand out in developing political, economic, and cultural cooperation within the Organization of Turkic States. Both countries consider their shared history, language, and cultural ties as essential elements of their foreign policy and regional cooperation. The OTS, on the other hand, aims to ensure that partnerships such as this do not remain limited to the bilateral level, but also carry existing cooperation across various fields into a multilateral framework.
In this regard, the Organization is significant not only for political and economic cooperation, but also for a wide range of fields such as transportation, customs, energy, education, culture, tourism, and security[5]. While Azerbaijan’s position within the OTS makes it a key actor particularly for transportation and trade routes connecting the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Uzbekistan is likewise a crucial actor within the OTS due to its central location in Central Asia and its regional economic capacity. Therefore, cooperation between the two countries within the OTS is significant not only for bilateral relations, but also for connections between the Caucasus and Central Asia.
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