Türkiye-Iran Relations: A New Era?

14.03.2024

A cordial and positive atmosphere marked the long-awaited visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Ankara on January 24, 2024. There were many topics on the table: bilateral relations, trade, and regional stability, and above all, the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Raisi’s meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reflects the nature of the intricate and multidimensional relationship between the parties. Iran and Türkiye have had a mixed history woven with imperial legacies, regional frictions, and economic cooperation. Their clashing interests in Syria, Iraq, and Azerbaijan sit in stark contrast to the fact that their borders have not changed for 400 years since the Ottoman-Safevid Treaty of Kasr-ı Şirin (Zuhab) in 1639. Iranians with Turkic origin, including Ali Khamaney (the Supreme Leader of Iran) himself, make up 40% of the population, and carry a cultural bond with their cousins in Türkiye and Azerbaijan. As heir to imperial civilizations with deep roots, the two countries co-exist in difficult borderlands fraught with armed insurgencies and failed states but see interest in economic partnership. More recently, the cooperative spirit was demonstrated by the signing of ten agreements in commercial, energy and logistical fields. Added to these is the creation of a Free Trade Zone (FTZ), intended to act as a driving force in strengthening political ties and as a catalyst in regional dispute resolution.

Iran and Türkiye: A multidimensional relationship

Despite the respective domestic dynamics and the regional turmoil, mainly related to the war in Gaza, but also to the ongoing conflict in Syria and the escalation in the Red Sea, Türkiye-Iran relations confirm some historical regularity and skilled diplomacy in navigating the complexities. Structurally, both countries aim for regional leadership, hence to some extent they are direct competitors. In this regard, Tehran and Ankara invest a lot in terms of raising their credibility through proxy logics. This is an endemic factor pivoting on the peculiarity of their bilateral ties, which experience collaboration and friction. Distrust, solidarity, cooperation are all structural elements of it, leading to competing but also complementary regional stance and aspirations as they are justified by their strategic interests.

In this context, Iran-Türkiye cooperation is compartmentalized and built upon complementary competition. The reasons are found also through the history and are grounded on their mutual imperial legacies and aspirations as Persians (Safevids) and Ottomans have opposed each other between 15th and 18th centuries AD.[1] Nevertheless, Iranian and Turkish identities both have their own strong sense of belonging to nation-states, marking a difference in comparison to, for instance, Syria and Iraq. Furthermore, both are republics; on the one hand, Islamic Republic of Iran has a deep religious connotation, on the other, the modern Republic of Türkiye, as founded in 1923 by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, pursued a modernization and democracy project upon secular principles. Knowing that Iranian-style revolutionary Islamism would not take hold in Türkiye, Turkish governments have cleverly joined pluralism of moderate Islam with pragmatism of embracing democracy, modernity, and liberal global economy for the past forty years.[2] In addition, Iran is isolated from the international community, while genetically Türkiye has had an organic connection with Europe for a millennium a long-lasting international imprint due to its Western vision and to its membership to prominent organizations, such as NATO, OECD, and the Council of Europe.

Dr. Valeria GIANNOTTA

Scientific Director of CeSPI Observatory on Türkiye, Italy

Dr. Serhat S. ÇUBUKÇUOĞLU

Senior Fellow, Department of Strategic Studies, TRENDS Research and Advisory, UAE

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