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Central Asia, historically a center of many important routes, migrations, and expansions, has once again become a critical region in today’s global geopolitical equation. Having observed the transformation processes of the modern political era up to the millennium more as a subject being transformed than as a transformative agent, the future of Central Asia now stands out not only as a regional matter but also as an arena where global power competition is being shaped. This region now demonstrates that it is no longer merely a geography carrying the traces of past empires. Central Asia is drawing a new power map with China’s economic dynamism, Russia’s struggle for strategic survival, Türkiye’s cultural and diplomatic initiatives, Iran’s behind-the-scenes regional pursuits, and the European Union’s attempts at reviving its influence.
Central Asia’s wealth of energy resources, its potential for transportation and transit to Europe, and its young demographic structure make it an inevitable target for global actors. Meanwhile, the power struggle in the region is taking on a cold yet multi-layered character through mutual maneuvers. On one side stands China, offering attractive cooperation opportunities to regional countries through promises of economic growth; on the other, Russia continues its rightful claim to superiority based on historical ties and its security architecture. However, due to the multipolar nature of today’s international system, the rivalry between these two major powers is not confined to them alone. The rising role of medium-sized powers and alliances in today’s world order — exemplified by Türkiye’s increasing cultural diplomacy and economy-focused moves, Iran’s cautious yet strategic expansion efforts, and the West’s attempts to reassert its influence — are transforming Central Asia into a new “Great Game” arena.
This analytical article aims to reveal how these dynamics are intertwined, which actors are trying to penetrate the region through which instruments, and how the Central Asian countries are striving to create maneuvering space within these complex balances. In the development sections of the article, it will be examined in detail how China may use the “Belt and Road Initiative” not merely as an economic project but also as a means of regional power projection and political dependency mechanism; how Russia’s efforts to preserve its historical claims of influence have been disrupted after the Ukraine War; and how Moscow is seeking to reconstruct the security architecture in the region.
Additionally, the piece will focus on Türkiye’s new cooperation mechanisms based on historical and cultural partnerships in Central Asia, particularly the potential of the Organization of Turkic States to become a regional power center, and the deep impact of Türkiye’s economic and diplomatic initiatives on regional countries. It will also closely examine how Iran, despite its noticeable silence, is fortifying its presence in the region particularly through energy and logistics corridors. Furthermore, the European Union’s new investment and partnership policies towards Central Asia and their long-term impacts, especially in light of the Samarkand Summit, will be comprehensively evaluated. Finally, the possible strategies of the United States and consequently NATO in the region, where they are perhaps the least active, will be analyzed.
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