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The military operation targeting the eastern cities of Ukraine, which Russia launched on the morning of February 24, 2022, still continues with high tension. During the war, which has lasted more than two years now, the Russian state has had to fight against international pressure and sanctions, as well as the Ukrainian army. However, the decreasing likelihood of the Moscow government achieving the desired result in the war over the prolonged period is an indication of the weakening of economic, diplomatic and political tools. In particular, Moscow, which has become more sensitive to the sanctions of the European Union and the USA, is expected to follow destabilizing policies in the Balkans in the near future. In this way, Putin will want to break the collective pressure of his Western colleagues with the environment of impotence and insecurity in their close circle.
Moscow’s use of the turbulent politics in the Balkans to display an attitude that is contrary to the goals of the West is not a new dynamic in the international system. However, it can be said that the Russia-Ukraine War placed greater importance on the geopolitical balance in the region than before. In this new atmosphere, we can talk about two main issues that test the politics of the Balkans. The first of these is that the environment of insecurity created by the war has made the European Union’s Balkans expansion a necessity. For the integration of the Balkans into the EU, the conflicts in the region must be resolved urgently. It can be said that the second fundamental test was that the war forced the governments of the region to choose a clear side between the West and Russia. In this context, the parties will want to make allies in the Balkans through oppressive or peaceful means. While this new conjuncture is interpreted by some as an opportunity to solve deep-rooted problems in Balkans politics, such as the problem between Kosovo and Serbia, it is interpreted by others as the Balkans being on the verge of a major political crisis.
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