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The invasion attempt launched by the Russian Federation against the Republic of Ukraine in late February 2022 has been ongoing since then by both sides, but all the positive negative repercussions of the war have a striking effect on world public opinion and politics. In this respect, the most important geography affected directly or indirectly by the war has been Europe. The relations of the Russian Federation and European countries were tense until the crisis of the Ukrainian war; On a commercial level, the Russian Federation has always been an important partner for European countries. The most important reason for this partnership is of course the rich energy resources of the Russian Federation. With the high geographical proximity and logistics infrastructure, the Russian Federation was the largest energy importer of European countries; For the Russian Federation, European countries are also a major export market. There is clearly a Russian energy hegemony over the European countries. Over the years, European countries have continued to look for solutions and alternatives, but with the occupation process of Ukraine, tensions in relations reached their peak and an energy crisis broke out due to the European countries’ blockade measures, which greatly cut off the energy supply provided by Russia and carried out price manipulations.
European Countries Seek Alternative Solutions to The Energy Crisis
European countries have debated on the orientation to different alternative energy sources; At the beginning of these, in order to overcome the crisis urgently in the short term, European countries have made efforts to overcome this crisis with the decision that primarily aims to increase domestic savings. In addition to plans such as diversifying the energy market supplied from Russia and increasing alternative fossil fuel consumption points, the long-term issues such as the conversion to renewable energy sources and the gradual reduction of fossil fuels were decided.
To overcome the energy crisis in the short term, European countries 25 aim to break the dependency by diversifying their imports, which include natural gas, 37% oil and 20% coal energy shares obtained from the Russian Federation. (bp, 2022, World Energy n.d.)
One of the most important topics in the agenda of European countries regarding the orientation to renewable energy sources is to use solar energy, as well as to protect and increase the share of hydroelectric power plants and wind energy that are already in use. Another energy production is the energy from nuclear power plants, and these plants, whose raw material, uranium, is also dependent on imported substitution, have also been subjected to criticism due to the radioactivity it emits in the environment and the potential danger posed by nuclear technology.
In the search for long-term alternatives, European countries have taken the most concrete step in this regard as a result of the decision of the European Commission on 18 May 2022; reducing the use of fossil fuels and reducing energy dependence of European countries, especially those supplied by the Russian Federation, until 2027; In addition, it has implemented the “Repower of the European Union” project in order to convert to renewable energy sources.(European Commission-Press Release REPowerEU *,2022, n.d.) Especially in recent times, the agreement reached with Tunisia and Algeria from the North African countries on the potential of solar energy in the Sahara Desert as part of the negotiations on the development of new projects for solar energy potential is an important element for the long-term goals of European countries. An investment in these regions for solar energy could also be considered a strategic move, as the people’s Republic of China, the owner of the world’s largest solar power generation chain, could immunize European countries against a possible monopoly energy market in the coming years.
In line with the short-term targets, the main objective is to spread the shares of fossil fuels, which have a share of 40% supplied by the Russian Federation, to different regions and countries. European countries, which have been conducting diplomacy especially in the field of oil, especially in order to increase the weight of imports from Gulf countries, have recently paid attention to the energy reserves of the Eastern Mediterranean, which have recently prospered, in order to increase the diversity of imports of “LNG” for natural gas; For coal resources, European countries with more production capacity than other domestic reserves have also increased their trade volume, especially with the Republic of South Africa, in order to compensate for this share.(Argus-Insight-Europes-Coal-Import-Mix-Shifts-as-Demand-Soars, n.d.)
Natural gas, which is among the fossil energy sources that are also on the agenda for European countries, is one of the most important energy sources for European countries. Covering 24% of the energy consumption of the European Union, natural gas has been located in a wide range of areas in housing, services and transportation, electricity generation and industrial activities. The fact that natural gas is the consumer equivalent in Europe requires the continuity of the supply of this resource. In this regard, evaluating the energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean region is one of the highlights for European countries planning to increase their energy diversity. One of the main reasons for this is the geographical proximity of the region to European countries. As is known, the concept of geographical proximity still retains its charm in the commercial, economic and political policies of countries. In this regard, Eastern Mediterranean energy reserves are important because they are a geography close to Europe.
Eastern Mediterranean Energy Potential
The Eastern Mediterranean region contains 3.9 billion barrels of oil, while it has a natural gas reserve of close to 64.1 trillion cubic meters. (International – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2023). The most important resource in this regard is the hydrocarbon natural gas reserve, although there are countries exporting oil from the countries of the region; the lack of domestic consumption and reserve capacity reduces the possibility of an improvement on oil resources related countries in the region hydrocarbon reserves are mainly Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus and Turkey. Egypt, which is actively producing among these countries, has “LNG” terminals and supplies gas through the ports of “Idku and Damietta”; it has more than 90% of the discovered hydrocarbon natural gas capacity. However, Egypt spends the amount of natural gas produced annually largely on domestic consumption. Israel, which has the most reserves in the region after Egypt, is able to meet its domestic consumption with the resources it has. In this way, Israel can create surplus production by giving current surplus. Although the plans of European countries for Eastern Mediterranean energy resources were embodied and active steps were taken before the Ukraine crisis, problems in the region regarding energy security have prevented this. The most concrete example in this regard is the suspension of the “East-Med Pipeline” project. The fact that many of the countries of the region are located in the Middle East has caused the states to be unable to remain independent from the dynamic conflicts inherent in the nature of the region. Therefore, there are questions about the energy security of the region. Especially the disputed exclusive Economic Zone discussions in the Eastern Mediterranean region, Turkey, Cyprus, Libya, Greece, It has caused countries such as Egypt and Israel to be in a constant traffic of diplomacy and to face mutual security problems.
If the existence of such energy reserves is an alternative for the European Union, it is a question of whether there is a risk to be taken for European countries, especially considering that the extraction of hydrocarbon natural gas reserves located in remote coastal areas is costly and will take place in the long term. In addition, it is seen that the countries of the region also have high rates of energy dependence, and the potential reserves are in such a way that they can meet domestic consumption or mitigate the current deficit.
As a result, it is seen that the energy deposits on the Eastern Mediterranean area are not sufficient to meet the long-term needs of European countries, mainly hydrocarbon natural gas. it is seen that the countries concerned with energy export potential are also energy dependent countries, and they are trying to maintain the current balance by spending their reserves largely on their domestic consumption. In this case, if Eastern Mediterranean energy fields are to be brought to the European domestic market as an option for European countries who want to find maneuverable space in the short term by providing the energy diversity of fossil fuels as a solution to the energy crisis, a project on the region requires development.
However, the calculated cost of this project does not make this option preferable. In addition, the fact that the security issues in the region are reflected in the energy dimension makes the issue more unresolved. At the same time, the course of the ongoing Ukrainian war remains uncertain and diplomatic negotiations are open to change, and it is unlikely that the European states will take such a step. However, the development of dialogue with Mediterranean countries is a strategy that preserves its importance for European countries. Within the framework of the close neighborhood relations that have been ongoing since the Barcelona process has started in 1998, European countries have agreements and collaborations with Mediterranean countries indicating that a reasonable level of energy import volume may be a preferable choice for the maintenance of relations with the countries of the region. Therefore, it can be said that the energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean will also maintain the importance of energy diplomacy of European countries.
