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The European continent is undergoing one of the most dramatic geopolitical and economic transformations in history. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken not only its borders but also the very foundations of Europe’s decades-old security architecture and energy strategies. As global energy supply disruptions and concerns over the security of trade routes have become critical, regional cooperation has regained significance. In this complex period, the Three Seas Initiative (3SI), which connects the Adriatic, Baltic, and Black Seas, is viewed not merely as a regional development project but as a strategic necessity for Europe’s security, resilience, and competitiveness.
The Three Seas Initiative is built on significant economic potential, with its thirteen members currently representing over 120 million Europeans (more than a quarter of the EU population) and an economic output exceeding 3 trillion dollars. The Initiative’s member countries boast an economic growth rate roughly double that of the rest of Europe. Together, they are working to address an infrastructure gap estimated to be between 600 billion and 1 trillion euros compared to Western Europe.
The Initiative focuses on various strategic areas, including energy. It aims to enhance regional energy independence and support the transition to renewable energy sources. Located at the intersection of European and Asian transport routes, this region forms a strategically significant North–South axis of global importance. Strengthening this axis for energy and goods transportation is expected to leverage the connectivity it provides to support other regional initiatives.
Strengthening digital infrastructure and cybersecurity is another key objective. Particularly against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, regional security and the reinforcement of NATO’s eastern flank are among the issues being addressed. Following the Russia-Ukraine War, infrastructure projects have evolved beyond mere economic tools to become security elements as well.
Rising Regionalization
The initiative began with the idea of a platform structure under the EU umbrella, without a secretariat or institutional framework. However, today both the platform’s capacity and the region’s growing prominence are pushing this structure to its limits. After all, the geopolitical situation, economic uncertainty, and transformations in energy and technology require not only coordination but also leadership. Nevertheless, the Initiative has evolved into an established international forum, raised awareness regarding regional development priorities, and launched a unique and successful investment fund.
The view that the traditional east-west axis of policy and investment serves the interests of Western Europe but leaves Central and Eastern European states unable to benefit from this approach makes this platform even more crucial for the region.
From this perspective, while support for Ukraine and resilience against the Russian threat remain crucial for the eastern border, other priorities for the Initiative include the distribution of energy from new sources across all of Europe, the development of digital networks that lag behind those in the West, ensuring continuity across the continent, strengthening European unity through new transportation routes, and attracting investment. The energy and logistics corridors through which Ukraine will integrate into Europe under this initiative are also being carefully evaluated.
Regional states, which are prioritizing infrastructure projects such as port modernization, highways, and energy interconnections, now assess connectivity within the context of economic diplomacy, strategic security, and resilience.
However, while the region strives to operate under the EU’s institutional framework, it also appears to serve as an alternative lever to EU strategic policies. In particular, U.S. investment, support, and grants in the region are increasing American influence. As the EU and Western European countries continue to overlook priorities in the East, U.S. efforts in the region’s energy, defense, infrastructure, and economic sectors are gaining momentum. Within NATO, we can also observe that the region is providing support across the Atlantic in transatlantic relations. In these countries, the idea of not only steadily increasing defense budgets but also rapidly developing defense industries is gaining significant traction.
Beyond defense, energy pipeline projects signed between Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania have been linked to a high-volume LNG purchase agreement with the U.S. These agreements were criticized by Brussels, which urged the countries to “carefully assess their obligations” while signing energy project contracts.
In a separate agreement signed in Dubrovnik, Croatia signed a letter of intent with a U.S. investment group to establish a large-scale artificial intelligence development and data center in the country’s central region.
We also observed at the 2026 summit that the U.S. continues to sign agreements with regional countries that are unprecedented in scale.
2026 Dubrovnik Summit
The 11th Three Seas Initiative Summit, hosted by Croatia on April 28–29, 2026, concluded with the Dubrovnik Declaration, which aims to strengthen Europe’s strategic North-South axis as the initiative enters its second decade.
According to the Declaration, the Initiative has set the goal of becoming the primary platform for regional connectivity over the next decade. Given the impact of developments in the Middle East on energy and trade routes, steps were outlined to strengthen the Three Seas region’s role as a key energy and logistics corridor. The strategic importance of energy transfer projects such as the Adriatic Pipeline, the Vertical Gas Corridor, the Amber Gas Corridor, and the Solidarity Ring was emphasized. Dual-use transportation and mobility infrastructure supporting military mobility (Rail2Sea, Rail Baltica, Via Carpatia, etc.) was also prioritized.
It was emphasized that the corridors connecting the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic Seas are not only economic but also fundamental elements of European security. Connectivity along the North–South axis was projected to become a strategic necessity for Europe’s security, resilience, and competitiveness, and concrete steps to be taken were included in the declaration.
The strategic advantage provided by the region’s location between Europe and Asia was highlighted. It was noted that the region must be further integrated with other East–West corridors. In this context, the IMEC and Trans-Caspian corridors were specifically emphasized. The Croatian government attempted to forge connections and attract investment by inviting delegations from Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India to the summit.
The declaration’s particular emphasis on welcoming transatlantic relations with the U.S. once again brings to mind the potential loss of balance in the region.
Türkiye’s Contribution and Perspective
One of the most notable developments at the 2026 Dubrovnik Summit was Türkiye’s participation at the table for the first time, following the “strategic partner” status it secured at the 2025 Warsaw Summit. This participation reaffirms Türkiye’s indispensable role in European energy and transportation networks.
As Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized, Türkiye aligns its own “Middle Corridor” and “Development Road” projects with the objectives of the Three Seas Initiative. Türkiye views these corridors not as areas of competition, but as complementary elements that spread prosperity. By extending the concept of “connectivity” beyond physical elements such as railways or highways—defining it as a multidimensional ecosystem encompassing digital networks, finance, and governance—Fidan offers a vision that broadens the initiative’s scope and potential.
More importantly, this cooperation holds the potential to offer a “new narrative” for Türkiye-EU relations. The connectivity agenda provides a positive and concrete foundation that transcends political deadlocks.
Overall, the Three Seas Initiative is a structure with high potential for impact and one that is attracting increasing attention. Originally established as a framework to support Europe, it is evolving into an autonomous political vision due to the changing conditions in the region and Brussels’ lack of attention.
This article has been published by Anadolu Agency (in Turkish) on March 10, 2026.
