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Since October 2023, US President Joe Biden has shown almost absolute support for Israel and its leaders. The Biden administration has sent hundreds of arms shipments that have enabled the Israeli army to continue its brutal attacks on Gaza, used the US veto power in the UN security council to block multiple resolutions demanding a ceasefire, and undermined the legitimacy of both the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court because of their potential to undermine Israeli actions. There were moments when Biden disregarded the rules-based order of the existing international system, of which the United States is the founder and protector, in order to protect Israel and the extremist government of its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Nevertheless, with the full support of the US President, Netanyahu has consistently ignored and defied Israel’s most important ally, ignoring its advice and warnings on a number of issues. Finally, on June 18, the Israeli Prime Minister released an English-language video in an attempt to force the US administration’s hand, claiming that the United States was hiding the weapons Israel needed to continue its war.
In fact, Biden suspended a single shipment of munitions to Israel, 2,000 pound (900kg) bombs that can cause devastating casualties when dropped on densely populated areas, as the Israeli military has repeatedly done in Gaza. However, the administration refrained from making any implication that Israeli forces had crossed the red line in the Rafah occupation, which would trigger a broader ban on arms transfers. On top of that, less than a week later, the Biden administration resumed sending far more weapons than the single delivery it had delayed. In mid-May, as it became clear that Netanyahu, contrary to months of Biden’s warnings, was advancing with a ground offensive against Rafah in the southernmost part of Gaza, where more than 1 million Palestinians have taken refuge, the Biden administration informed Congress that it would send more than $1 billion in new arms shipments for Israel.
Since October, Biden has refrained from using his most effective leverage over the Israeli government and has failed to play the card of stopping the arms shipments despite the failure to meet his demands. The main reason for this is that Biden’s strategy is based on the idea of keeping Netanyahu close to him from the beginning of the war. Biden and his aides argued that he could have more influence over Israel’s actions by being supportive in public but restraining Netanyahu and his extremist allies in private. But this approach never worked, because Biden could hardly adjust this strategy.
Already, with his recent complaints about Biden’s delayed arms shipments, Netanyahu is not only showing a remarkable lack of gratitude towards him, but is also trying to destroy Biden’s ability to use US weapons as a means of pressure on Israel. And because Biden quickly hesitated after suspending a single ammunition package in May, Netanyahu is succeeding. The Biden administration is thus spending its energy defending itself against Netanyahu’s calculated claim that the US is not providing Israel with enough weapons.
Biden and his aides are now worried that Netanyahu will use Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of Congress on July 24 to once again attack Biden during the US presidential election for not supporting Israel’s war enough. This plays into the hands of the Republicans in the House of Representatives, who invited Netanyahu to speak despite the White House’s objections.
It is clear that Netanyahu will undermine Biden and US interests in general to save himself. All this makes Biden’s weak response and his helplessness in confronting Netanyahu all the more surprising: Why is the US president risking his own political future by continuing to support a foreign leader who is trying to destabilize him?
Domestic Political Pressures
Republicans, known for their pro-Israel stance in American politics, classify any arms restrictions on Israel as a “reprehensible” betrayal. The Biden administration continues to be pressed on this issue on every platform. Nevertheless, US military support for Israel is widely supported by Democrats as well as Republicans in Congress. This support is reinforced by the most powerful pro-Israel lobby groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This lobby group, for example, is spending tens of millions of dollars this election cycle to oust Democrats it considers not to be pro-Israel.
This spring, Gregory W. Meeks, the top Democrat on the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, publicly vowed to suspend the arms package unless he received assurances from the administration on how the warplanes and munitions would be used in Gaza. Democrat Ben Cardin, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a staunch supporter of Israel, also appeared to stand with Meeks in collegial solidarity. Meeks and Cardin, two of the four members of Congress who can effectively veto a foreign military sale, reportedly approved a major arms sale to Israel a few weeks ago, after facing intense pressure from the Biden administration and pro-Israel advocates. The other two members of Congress, Republican Senator James E. Risch and Representative Michael McCaul, had approved the sale months earlier.
On March 23, the US Congress passed a spending package that includes a total of $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel and cuts all US funding to UNRWA, the UN humanitarian agency working in Gaza. The passage of this legislation, with the overwhelming support of Democratic representatives, belies the party’s increasingly vocal criticism of Israel’s behavior and concerns about compliance with US and international law, especially among Democratic voters.
Yoav Gallant’s Visit to the United States
Aviv Bushinsky, a former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, has stated that the prime minister’s office is working to set the agenda for Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s meetings in the US, and that actions are being planned to give Netanyahu (not Gallant) credit for releasing the bomb shipment. We can assume that the video released by Netanyahu is related to this. But Gallant, in a statement about the video, criticized Netanyahu for airing his grievances publicly rather than resolving the issue privately. Stating that the American people are like a family, Gallant’s emphasis on solving problems between the family also showed the framework of his relations with the US administration.
During his visit to the United States, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said after meeting with President Joe Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan at the White House that progress had been made on several issues, including force building and ammunition procurement. Sullivan “reaffirmed President Biden’s commitment to ensuring that Israel has everything it needs to defend itself militarily and fight its Iranian-backed enemies – Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon,” the White House said in a statement. It is important to note that Hezbollah was discussed, even if it is not mentioned here, because it is important for Gallant’s political room for maneuver that a possible attack on Lebanon was brought to the table, despite the clear US opposition to the escalation of the conflict. During his visit, Gallant also met with US CIA chief Bill Burns, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who played a key role in negotiations for the release of hostages held by Hamas.
In particular, it was understood that his counterpart gave Gallant detailed information about the munitions, and that the negotiations and final decisions on arms supplies in general were concluded with Gallant.
The fact that none of the anti-Netanyahu messages were withdrawn during these visits, which were also considered as an attempt to undermine Netanyahu just a month before the Israeli Prime Minister’s trip to Washington, where he will address the joint session of Congress, and the value given by the US side to Gallant’s role in solving the problems show that the Biden administration is more likely to support Yoav Gallant.
Biden’s Election Challenge
President Joe Biden has toughened his warnings to Netanyahu about military tactics in the Gaza Strip amid pressure from progressive Democratic voters to take a tougher line against Israel. However, despite threatening to impose a ban on arms transfers in response to the attack on Rafah, Netanyahu has avoided any hint that Israel has crossed the red line and has continued to supply munitions, causing a dilemma among Democratic voters.
In late May, the United States joined 16 other countries in calling on Israel and Hamas leaders to “make all necessary final concessions” to reach an agreement. The call for a ceasefire followed Israeli warnings that a prolonged war in Gaza would negatively affect Biden’s re-election chances.
Recent published polls showed Biden with less than 20 percent support among Arab Americans, a key voter group that could decide the outcome in many critical states in the US. Polls also show that Biden is losing support among young voters due to his unwavering support for Israel, and among black voters, who often make up a significant bloc in the Democratic Party base.
However, Biden is also facing right-wing critics who say he is reducing his support for a key ally in the Middle East.
In the first (and perhaps only) presidential debate between Biden and Trump, when it came to the crisis in Gaza, Biden stuck to the peace plan allegedly endorsed by Netanyahu. Trump, however, spoke of “letting them finish the job”, referring to Netanyahu’s rhetoric during his demand for more weapons.
Netanyahu seems to believe that his and Trump’s political goals overlap. Perhaps Trump has very different reasons for supporting Israel, given his white Christian nationalist supporters. But while Biden has been vacillating between diplomacy and impotence, in the general confusion of the Democrats, Trump has already solidified his support. Israel-backed lobbies, voters, politicians’ interests, presence in the Middle East, and the US President’s global show of strength… President Biden is likely to pay politically for his mistakes in calculating the effects of supporting Israel with ammunition in an election process with so many variables.
This article has been published by Anadolu Agency (in Turkish) on July 05, 2024.
