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The coalition government in Germany reaching an agreement on a new military service law is one of the strongest indications that Europe’s security architecture is slowly but steadily entering a period of “war economy” and “societal mobilization.” Berlin’s desire to increase its military presence by 80,000 to 260,000 in order to implement NATO’s new defense plans against the Russian threat, and to offer women the option of voluntary military service, represents a critical shift in the continent’s defense strategy. But the essential question is this: Is this change merely a security revision unique to Germany, or is the whole of Europe preparing for a new mindset shift at the threshold of war?
Europe’s Strategic Awakening
Russia’s 2022 attack against Ukraine demonstrated decisively that Europe’s post–Cold War period of relaxation had come to an end. The perception of threat for EU and NATO members was almost completely redefined. In this context, Germany’s steps appear not as part of an isolated national policy, but rather as a component of a broader European transformation.
Today, debates about increasing military capacity rank high on the political agenda in many European countries.
Estonia, Finland, Norway, Switzerland, and Greece are among the states that already maintain compulsory military service.
In Norway, where conscription was already in place, a regulation adopted in 2013 allowed women to enter military service, and the first mixed-gender conscripts began training in 2016. Norway was the first NATO country to require military service from both men and women.
Lithuania reinstated compulsory military service in 2015 after abolishing it in 2008. Each year, some citizens who have reached the age of 18 or are of conscription age are selected for nine months of service.
Sweden restarted this practice in 2017 after an eight-year break. All 18-year-olds are required to submit their personal information to the army, after which some are drafted. Depending on the military’s annual need, this corresponds to roughly 5 to 10 percent of 18-year-old men and women.
Latvia abolished compulsory service in 2006 but reinstated it in 2023, beginning to enlist all men aged 18–27 for 11 months of service, while women are allowed to volunteer.
Denmark expanded compulsory service to include women starting from July 2025. This makes Denmark the third European country, after Norway and Sweden, to require women to serve in the armed forces. Basic military training previously lasted only four months, but beginning in 2026 it will be extended to 11 months.
In October, the Croatian parliament reinstated compulsory military service after a 17-year break. The new law requires men who turn 18 to undergo medical examinations by the end of the year and to begin two months of basic training starting next year.
Meanwhile, several countries are taking steps to increase troop numbers and make their militaries more prepared.
Poland abolished compulsory service in 2008 and has not yet reinstated it. However, since the Russia–Ukraine War, it has been arming itself more intensively than many other European states. The Polish military, which is NATO’s third-largest currently, aims to reach 300,000 troops by 2035. Poland also provides training in public safety, disaster rescue, basic first aid, and health education to children aged 14–16. As of 2024, this age group has also begun receiving weapons training for approximately one hour per week.
In France, compulsory military service was abolished in 1997, and the most recent attempt to replace it is the “Universal National Service (SNU)” introduced by Emmanuel Macron’s administration. A one-month program for youth ages 15–17, partly organized by the French military but also containing social and civic components, the SNU is being strengthened and expanded by Macron’s government. In addition, the number of reservists is expected to more than double from 46,000 to 105,000 by 2035.
Therefore, Germany’s decision constitutes the latest link in a broader wave of strategic awakening sweeping across Europe.
Germany ended compulsory service in 2011 and shifted to a fully voluntary army. Since then, recruitment has become more difficult, and troop numbers have consistently declined. To increase recruitment, Germany decided to raise payments made to voluntary soldiers by 450 euros, reaching 2,600 euros. Under the new plan, all 18-year-old men will be required to fill out a survey regarding their suitability and willingness for military service and to undergo a medical examination. The same voluntary method will also apply to women. Although military service is not compulsory under the new rules, the model includes the potential for conscription. If the security situation changes or an insufficient number of volunteers come forward, the German government may mandate compulsory service after receiving approval from the Bundestag. Beginning in 2027, the mandatory survey will provide the government with information on how many potential soldiers exist, where they are located, their health status, and where they could best serve.
NATO’s New Defense Design: A 360-Degree Threat Perception
The principal variable pushing European countries in this direction is NATO’s new defense plans adopted at the 2023 Vilnius Summit. For the first time in the post–Cold War era, the alliance identified Russia as “the most significant and direct threat.” In this context, goals were set to establish a high-readiness force of 300,000 troops, prepare detailed operational plans for the territorial defense of Europe, and ensure member states increase their defense spending to at least 2 percent of GDP. Shortly after, as member states were only beginning to reach these targets, the 2025 The Hague Summit decided that NATO countries should meet the target of spending 5 percent of annual GDP on defense by 2035 due to “deep security threats and challenges” facing Europe.
The speed of the increase demonstrates that Europe is entering not merely a phase of “strategic discourse” but a period of serious “military preparedness.” Alongside the efforts of these states to increase troop numbers, the deepening defense integration brought by Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership shows that the continent’s collective defense reflex is strengthening.
Public Perception: Are European Societies in War Mode?
While European governments take swift steps to increase military capacity, the psychological readiness of societies is not advancing at the same pace. On one hand, the tangibility of the Russian threat is acknowledged; on the other, European societies have grown accustomed to seven decades of peace, prosperity, and low security costs.
Research in Germany indicates that a significant portion of the youth population is reluctant about compulsory service. In France, more than 60 percent of society does not want to become directly involved in a potential NATO–Russia conflict. In Italy and Spain, increases in security spending have sparked public criticism.
However, in countries bordering Russia, such as the Baltic states and Finland, social motivation is much higher. There has been a notable rise in voluntary military participation among youth in Latvia and Estonia. These contrasting tendencies reveal a deep divergence between Eastern and Western Europe in terms of security perceptions.
Is Europe Preparing for War, or Merely Getting Used to Its Shadow?
It is early to interpret current developments in Europe as preparations for an imminent hot war. However, what is certain is this: Europe is rapidly distancing itself from the habits of the post-war peace era. Debates over compulsory military service, increases in defense budgets, and the restructuring of armed forces show that the continent is preparing itself for a prolonged period of geopolitical competition.
European governments appear ready; however, the degree to which all layers of society will adapt to this transformation remains uncertain. Leaving behind the “comfortable peace order” of the post-Soviet period will not be easy. Moreover, if this situation reaches the point of sacrificing economic prosperity, the first challenge governments will face will be maintaining societal motivation. Europe’s future security success will depend not only on military modernization but also on strengthening societal resilience and on how effectively political leadership can guide public opinion through this long-term security era.
This article was developed from an Opinion piece which has been published by Anadolu Agency (in Turkish) on November 26, 2025.
